The Kutty Katt's Thoughts

It is that time of year again! NFL season is right around the corner, and what better way to stay engaged all year than to throw some lunch money on some longshot bets? This has become a fun activity for me the last few years, I don’t always actually make the bet (because money is in fact real) but I think its fun to keep track to see what would have happened. Last year my longshots did not hit, my closest was the Patriots winning the Super Bowl, which I did not bet, but was still fun that I considered it as a potential long shot.

All that being said, please do not take my bets as the best thing in the world. More than likely all of these will lose. They just have better odds to happen than the sportsbook is giving them credit for. All odds listed below come from DraftKings, as they actually have a lot of NFL odds posted already, unlike FanDuel.

Team Bets

Super Bowl Winner – Minnesota Vikings +5000.

A few years ago the Rams made a splash by trading for Matthew Stafford, they felt like they were a quarterback away from winning it all. It turns out they were right. Last year the Vikings felt like a bad team right? They had horrible quarterback play and at times looked like a college level offense against an NFL defense. The thing is, they still went 9-8, granted they ended the year on a 5 game winning streak. This team felt like they were a quarterback away last year. They went out and got…Kyler Murray…not as exciting as Matthew Stafford, but still a massive improvement. They play in a tough division, but their defense is legit, and Kyler will have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson to throw to. They will be a fun team to watch, assuming Kyler plays, if they come out and say McCarthy is starting I would not pick them. Watch out for the Vikings come playoff time, a strong defense can lead a mediocre offense deep into the playoffs.

Three-Team Division Parlay – Jaguars +245, Saints +265, Chargers +190: +3551.

You can easily bet these individually, but to get the odds high enough, I wanted to take three division winners. Each of these teams have the second best odds in their division.

The Jaguars are behind the Texans. It seems people are thinking the offensive struggles of the Texans will be gone this year, or that their defense will carry them again. We saw that their defense couldn’t carry them to a division victory last year, and I think the same thing happens again. Texans are going to be in every game, but they are also going to let their opponents be in every game. The Jags just feel like a more complete team.

The Saints looked good down the stretch last year. If Shough is as good as he was last year the Saints are in good shape. They get to play a last-place schedule and the rest of the teams in the NFC South didn’t do anything to make a huge impact.

Lastly, the Chargers, which I will admit, is my least confident of the three. They will have to deal with the Chiefs and Broncos, not to mention a Raiders team that could be better than expected. The biggest acquisition for the Chargers was getting Mike McDaniels to be the Offensive Coordinator. I believe he will take Herbert to the next level. The Chiefs will start slow with Mahomes coming back from his injury, and the Broncos schedule is a gauntlet, I expect some regression from them.

Three-Team To Miss Playoffs Parlay – Patriots +184, Bengals +160, and Eagles +154: +1775.

Do I think all of these team will miss the playoffs? No. Do I think they all have legit reasons they could miss? Yes.

First, the Patriots, last year’s AFC winner. Some will say that they were only there because of the extremely weak schedule they played plus the injuries to opposing teams in the playoffs. We can see if the haters are right. They will play a top seed schedule this year and it is not a cupcake. I think the Bills take the division this year, and the Pats just miss the wildcard.

The Bengals are only here because I can’t trust them to stay healthy. I am taking the odds that some kind of injury will happen that hurts them for half the year and they finish at 9-8 just barely out of the playoffs, maybe some Steelers devil magic does them in.

Lastly, the Eagles. I believe all of the wildcard teams will be taken up by NFC West and North teams, meaning the only path for the Eagles is to win the East. I think they are more than capable of repeating as division champions, but other teams in that division are improving and it will be a dog fight. It wouldn’t surprise to see the Eagles get to 10 wins and miss out on the playoffs.

Awards

MVP – Trevor Lawrence +2200.

The MVP award is always a highly debated award. It seems to always go to Quarterbacks, even if another player was clearly the MVP of the team. The voters also tend to favor a player from a team with a top record in the league. Voter fatigue is also a real thing in human psychology. That leads me to want to take a shot with Lawrence. He hasn’t wont before, so a great year for him would mean more than a great year from someone like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. I believe the Jaguars will have a top record in the league this year. Most importantly, he plays quarterback. This all comes together to give Lawrence a quality chance to get the MVP award.

OPOY – Trey McBride +8000.

No tight end has ever won offensive player of the year, I think its time we break that. McBride is going to be the number one option on a fun Cardinals’ offense. Their defense is going to give up points which means they have to throw more, which means more McBride time. I don’t really think McBride has a shot at it, but it would be a fun storyline to root for this year. Overall, this feels like an award that could get pretty random this year, there is so much offensive talent in the NFL.

Stat Leaders

For each stat leader category that is available I will provide two players who have substantial odds to be the league leader. I will try to stay above +3000 odds unless I just can’t find a fun bet at those odds. These players will either be fun to root for or have an interesting storyline that would lead them to leading the league in that category.

Passing Yards – Lamar Jackson +4000 or Aaron Rodgers +5000.

It feels like a prove it year for Lamar, doesn’t it? What would be a better way to prove it than to lead the league in passing yards? Lamar has arm talent, he’s not just a runner, and that is coming from a Steelers fan. As he ages up it will be more important for him to be a pocket passer. I think this is the year he fully embraces his arm talent and lets the rushing take a step back.

The final year in the career of Aaron Rodgers. He has the best receiving cast he has had in years and I think he will lay it all on the line. Mike McCarthy might be able to fire up some vintage Aaron Rodgers and let his arm make a statement for the Steelers this year. Tomlin was focused on hard-nosed football and pounding the ball. McCarthy might let Rodgers do what he sees fit in his final year. Allowing Rodgers to go out on top.

Passing Touchdowns – Aaron Rodgers +4500 or Justin Herbert +2200.

It is the same idea as above for Rodgers. This is his final year, and it would be a poetic ending to his career. However, I do think him leading the league in passing touchdowns is more likely than leading the league in passing yards. He has deep threats to target, he has excellent redzone receivers, and has quality pass catching backs. I feel like the Steelers will choose to pass over run when they get into the Redzone this year, leading to Rodgers getting more passing touchdowns.

Herbert breaks our +3000 rule, but he felt like the best option for that value. He has Mike McDaniels at OC, who helped lead Tua to leading the league in passing yards. Herbert is miles better than Tua. He could be a potential pick to lead the league in passing yards as well, but I like passing touchdowns for him more. He has his deep-threat in Quentin Johnston, he has a good hands receiver with Ladd McConkey, and he has two good redzone tight ends with Oronde Gadsden and David Njoku. This could be a fun year for Herbert.

Rushing Yards – Kenneth Walker III +3000 or Jadarian Price +5000.

Kenneth Walker decided to leave Seattle after winning the Super Bowl and getting the MVP. He went to Kansas City where we will be their work-horse running back. Part of me thinks they will not run Walker crazy since they just paid him a ton, but also with Mahomes coming back from his torn ACL, it is the perfect time to create a run-first offense around him. Walker will get a ton of carries and will look to build off his impressive playoff run.

Speaking of Seattle, with the departure of Walker and the injury to Charbonnet there is a massive hole in the backfield. Seattle decided to fill it by drafting Price. He will be the lead back at least until Charbonnet is back from his injury, and in this scenario, the Seahawks don’t rush Charbonnet back because Price is killing it on the ground. Potentially letting Charbonnet play back-up until he is 100% ready and then splitting snaps evenly. Seattle’s offense is built around the run, and if their rookie is effective, I think they will run him until he can’t go.

Rushing Touchdowns – David Montgomery +4000 or Jalen Hurts +2500.

Sonic and Knuckles are no more. David Montgomery moved on this offseason to sign with the Texans, and their offense needed him. I think Montgomery is going to be the main redzone running back and option. I can see him getting handoff after handoff down in the redzone, and getting in the endzone. I believe this change of scenery and the basic offense the Texans have will propel his game forward.

The death of the Tush Push. That will be the headline at the start of next season after Jalen Hurts leads the league in rushing touchdowns. Less drama surrounds the team with the departure of A.J. Brown which could lead them to just going back to their strong suit, running the ball. Jalen Hurts since becoming the full time starter in 2021 has had 10+ rushing touchdowns every year except last year. It would be incredible frustrating for the league if he leads the league in rushing touchdowns, and for sure would result in the death of the Tush Push.

Receiving Yards – Ladd McConkey +5000 or Brock Bowers +4500.

I have already stated that I believe the Chargers will be much better offensively with the addition of Mike McDaniel as their OC. Having Ladd McConkey lead the league in receiving yards is an extension of the storyline produced by that hire. Imagine if in year one Mike McDaniel transforms this Chargers offense into a juggernaut, he would be able to grab any head coaching job he wanted next year. People would remember him for who is was when he first got to Miami, and not the person who left Miami last year. Ladd just feels like a guy who would randomly lead the league in receiving yards as well. He is a great route runner and has reliable hands.

When was the last time a Tight End led the NFL in receiving yards? Never. This is the year it will happen though. The Raiders number one wide receiver is Tre Tucker, which no offense to Tre, is a huge step down from Bowers. The Raiders will be losing a lot and need to throw the ball to stay in games. Bowers will make himself a easy target for Kirko-2-chainz or Mendoza, whoever ends up playing for them. My only concern for Bowers is if Mendoza does end up starting and the coaching staff decides to use Bowers more as a decoy to help free up the other receivers for Mendoza.

Receiving Touchdowns – Chris Olave +8000 or Colby Parkinson +12000.

Chris Olave looked good at the end of the year with Shough. The Saints offense got better around Olave but he will still be the highlight of the offense. The league is getting filled with pass catchers and every team has multiple players who can score. Last year, 14 receiving touchdowns led the league, I could see a similar number leading the league again. Olave has the potential to snag 15 touchdowns and I like his odds here. Having the Saints be a good football team is always fun for the league.

Here is my longshot of longshots, Rams Tight End Colby Parkinson leading the league in Receiving touchdowns. As the year went on Stafford started trusting Colby more, evident by having two different two touchdown games in the back-half of the year. Davante Adams is aging up and a new redzone threat may be needed for Stafford. The Rams needing to protect their aging Quarterback is also a necessity, so you may seem them stack more tight ends in the box and send them out for routes after helping with the initial rush. Colby is a longshot, but imagine this bet hitting? It would be incredible.

Sacks – Jared Verse +5000 or Alex Highsmith +5000.

How fitting would it be for the Rams to trade for one of the greatest defensive players of this generation just for the player they traded away to have more sacks than him the next year? Not just more sacks than him, but more sacks than the entire league? Jared Verse has a chance to prove the Rams should have kept him. I am always here for players proving themselves, and if Verse immediately leads the league in sacks, this may be greatest ‘proving themselves’ moment.

A little Steelers bias here, but Alex Highsmith is constantly improving and is hitting his peak. T.J. Watt is getting older and teams still plan to double team him, leading to Highsmith to get more one-on-one opportunities. If the Steelers offense is good this year, that will allow the defense to rush the passer more, leading to Highsmith getting more chances. This is also a Madden approved pick, because it seems every time I simulate a season for random scenarios I think of Highsmith ends up with 20+ sacks somehow, so lets see if Madden is right for once.

Interceptions Thrown – Jared Goff +3500 or Jordan Love +3000.

It is never fun to root for a guy to throw a ton of interceptions. It is also hard to pick who will lead the league in this stat because most of the time, if you are throwing interceptions, you are going to get benched. I ended up picking two quarterbacks who are not likely to get benched, even if they throw some picks. Both have not great odds since their offenses are typically run first.

For Goff, he is known for not turning the ball over, but as the Lion’s offenses ages and becomes stale there is a shot he throws more picks. Dan Cambell will also ride and die with Jared Goff, so even if he is not looking great, he will get a shot at finishing it out.

For Love, with their defense starting the year banged up, I can just see them needing to throw the ball more to stay in games. This leads to picks, especially if he tries to force things downfield. I think Jordan Love is a good player, which is why even if he is throwing picks he won’t get benched. This makes him an excellent candidate for this bet.

Player Milestones

For the player milestones I am picking 3 players for each section. I will provide the odds for each player individually and the odds if you parlayed them all together. DraftKings has multiple tiers in each section, I took what I considered “the middle” tier. Basically wouldn’t be a crazy year if someone got to these numbers but would be a good/great year.

4000+ Passing Yards – Parlay Odds: +9350

• Aaron Rodgers +500 – As stated before, it being Rodgers final year, he could go out on a bang. Especially late in the year if the Steelers aren’t in playoff contention, they could just him sling it for fun.
• Lamar Jackson +425 – Another bet based on previous bets. If I think Lamar has a shot to lead the league in passing, he has a shot to get to 4000 passing yards. I like the odds he is at and could see him getting there.
• Caleb Williams +200 – The Bears have never had a 4000+ yard passer, and this is the year it finally happens. The Bears will expand the playbook more for Caleb, and he will sling it around the field. It would be a fun story to watch as the year goes on.

30+ Passing Touchdowns – Parlay Odds: +20060

• Tyler Shough +600 – I may be overhyping Shough, but I just like his game. I think the Saints will be much better this year and Shough could get his passing touchdowns in. His odds are a little high, so I wouldn’t blame people if they shied away from 30+ touchdowns, and instead did the 25+ touchdown bet for him.
• Aaron Rodgers +500 – Again, Rodgers last year and I might be overhyping it. I just believe he will go out on a bang. My Steelers bias is showing but I don’t care. I believe in Rodgers and he will get to 30+ passing touchdowns this year.
• Jordan Love +380 – The replacement of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers defense will not be as strong as last year. Love will need to throw the ball more to stay in the game and with the receiving core that he has, he should easily get to 30+ touchdowns.

1000+ Receiving Yards – Parlay Odds: +6725

• Michael Pittman Jr +225 – If Rodgers is going out with a bang, the yards have to go to someone. Michael Pittman Jr. feels like a receiver that Rodgers would love. He has a big body and runs his routes effectively. Rodgers will find him as his safety valve and Pittman will get to his 1000-yards.
• Jakobi Meyers +300 – The last few years Jakobi Meyers has been up and down, specifically in fantasy. He has games where he goes nuts and then he has games where he gets almost nothing. After being traded to the Jaguars, he seemed to find his home. The connection between Lawrence and him was solid. The only downside is that the Jaguars do have other quality receivers that will steal targets. I think Meyers will get his fair share though and make the most of it.
• Makai Lemon +425 – The rookie that is replacing A.J. Brown in the Eagles offense. The 1000 yards that Brown was good for have to be replaced somewhere, and I think Lemon will step right in and be great. Devonta is good, but he does not feel like a true #1 to me. I think Hurts will find a connection with Lemon early and by the end of the year he could be cooking.

The Legend of the Three-headed Jaguar – +3980

• Jakobi Meyers
• Parker Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr.

Five teams in NFL history have been able to produce three 1000 yard receivers in the same year. It takes a mix of wide receiver talent, quarterback arm talent, and offensive scheme to get there. I think the Jaguars could do that. All 3 receivers have the talent to get the yards, Lawrence has the arm talent to get them the ball, and the Jaguars playbook will take Lawrence arm-talent into account. The idea for this came to me because all three wide receivers were close to each other in odds, and I thought “wow they don’t know who will be good. What if its all of them?”

10+ Receiving Touchdowns – Parlay Odds: +81800

• Mark Andrews +600 – No more Likely in Baltimore makes Andrews for sure the top redzone target for Lamar. Henry is getting older and may not be as effective in the Redzone as in years pass. Andrews is looking healthy and could have a big year in Baltimore.
• Colston Loveland +800 – We saw stretches where it looked like Loveland was going to be the next big tight end, and I think that will carry over to this year. I think Loveland will be a pivotal piece of the Bears offense and the Redzone passing game will run through him. He also has shown big play potential. This mix leads me to believe he will easily get to 10 touchdowns this year.
• Dalton Kincaid +1200 – Every single year I think Kincaid is going to break out, and I am jumping back into that well. I think Allen will try to pass more this year, it keeps the offense flowing nicely and opens up running lanes for him later in the game. Kincaid has shown to be a reliable target for Allen and is only improving. The main question will be what split he ends up getting with Dawson Knox.

1000+ Rushing Yards – Parlay Odds: +3932

• David Montgomery +200 – Most running backs in the NFL fall-off when they hit 30. Lucky for us, this will be David Montgomery’s age 29 season. I don’t believe the Texans will be a good team offensively, but their defense will keep them in close games, and they will run to run clock. This will lead Montgomery to get more action.
• Travis Etienne Jr. +220 – After a mixed tenure in Jacksonville, Etienne decided to take his talents to New Orleans. With the injury to Kamara last year the Saints run game was not good, but they still tried to run. Now with a better running back I think the Saints continue to pound the rock. Etienne wants to show what he can do, and he will get to 1000 rushing yards this year.
• Bhayshul Tuten +320 – The replacement for Etienne. I don’t think Tuten is the best running back in the league, but he is quick and the best running back on their team. He will get the bulk of the work and just by nature of the Jaguars’ offense being good, he will get his rushing yards.

10+ Rushing Touchdowns – Parlay Odds: +5750

• Travis Etienne Jr. +550 – As stated above, I think the Saints offense will be much improved and will center around Etienne. If Kamara is healthy and stays the Saints the one-two combo of Etienne and Karma in the backfield would lead me to believe that Etienne would get the bulk of the goal-line work since he would be the more powerful runner of the two. This will allow him to just reach that 10 rushing touchdown threshold.
• Ashton Jeanty +200 – This will be the last year you can get Jeanty at these odds. He has the skill level to consistently get to this milestone yearly, but with people not knowing how the Raiders offense will look this year, it scares them off. This will be the start of a break out for them, maybe a slow start to the year, but by the end of the year we will look up and see Jeanty has 10 rushing touchdowns.
• Kenneth Walker III +200 – I believe that Walker’s odds are lower because of how the Chiefs traditionally run their offense. We need to throw tradition our the window. We don’t know how the knee injury will affect Mahomes or how willing the chiefs will be to put Mahomes in injury-potential situations early in the year. I think Walker will hit this earlier in the year and then cool off, the opposite of Jeanty. The Chiefs will ease Mahomes back into full action and let Walker eat during that time.

10+ Sacks – Parlay Odds: +6480

• Jared Verse +250 – The Browns for years have had Myles Garrett leading their D-line, now they are going to trust Verse to do the same. I think the coaching staff understands that Verse is not Garrett. They won’t be able to relay on Verse just being the best player on the field, they are going to have to draw up packages and looks to get him at the quarterback. They don’t want the trade to look like a waste so I can see them trying to get him going early in the year. After that, with confidence by his side, Verse will easily get to 10 sacks.
• Abdul Carter +370 – Carter only had 4 sacks last year, a very underwhelming year for him. He was a rookie, just trying to get his feet under him. He will take a big leap forward this year with an improved Giants team, both defensively and coaching wise. He won’t get much higher than 10 sacks, but he will definitely hit that mark.
• Laiatu Latu +300 – in 2024 Latu had 4 sacks, last year he jumped up to 8.5, so he will clear 10+ sacks this year. Latu is improving and looks like he will be a force on that Colts defense. The Colts have a solid secondary which gives Latu time to get to the quarterback. With his improvements and the Colts secondary, I see Latu getting at least 10+ sacks this year.

Wrap up

As stated before, please do not take any of my predictions as factual or bet real money on them. These are all incredible longshots and I would hate to see anyone lose money based on my words. However, I am going to do a review on this post after the year ends to see how much money I would have lost…I mean Won…placing all of these bets.

Each bet will be placed at $100 for simple math later on. I broke up the money totals below to make it easier to see where it will all be bet and we can see which section was my best. For player milestones I decided that if I was actually betting these I would bet each player individual as well as the parlay. The only exception to that is the Jaguars receiver bet, that one would only be a parlay.

• Team Bets – $300
• Awards – $200
• Stat Leaders – $1600
• Player Milestones – $2900
• Total – $5000

I will see you all in February to see how I did!