The Kutty Katt's Thoughts

With the 2026 NFL season right about the corner, we should start preparing ourselves for certain things that could happen during the season.

Don’t be Surprised if… The Rams don’t win the Super Bowl.

The Rams are heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl this year, sitting at +550 with the next closest being at +1100. Those are really low odds for a Super Bowl winner and that is a large gap between first and second best odds. I was curios how the Rams odds stacked up against other teams. The lowest preseason odds to win the Super Bowl were the 2007 Patriots at +250. For the 2007 season the Chargers had the second best odds at +600. In the end, the Giants won the Super Bowl with +3000 odds in the preseason.

As for the gap between the Rams and the next closest team, it is tied for the largest gap with the 2009 Patriots. Those Patriots were +450 to win it all and the next closest were at +1000. That year the Saints won it all with +2000 preseason odds. Historically it is not looking goods for the Rams.

I could just be cherry picking some data, only looking at the those two situations. I went one step further, I looked at how many teams have had odds of +550 or better to win the Super Bowl in the preseason vs how many actually won it all. Since 2000, 21 teams across 16 NFL seasons have had odds of +550 or better, Zero of them have won it all.

Taking it one step further, the average odds of the winning team in the Super Bowl in years where a +550 or lower favorite exists is a little under +1860. Which means we should be looking at teams in that +1800 to +1900 range. I took a look at the 5 major sportsbooks to see what teams are in that range.
Lions (4 times), 49ers (4 times), Texans (3 times), Broncos (2 times), Eagles (once), Packers (once), and the Chargers (once). The consensus is that the Lions or 49ers fit the mold the best, so be on the lookout for them this postseason.

Aside from history being against the Rams I think their overall odds are artificially inflated by the additions they made this offseason and the fact they played the Seahawks so well last year. Truthfully though, this team is getting older, and as the season progress that age could catch up to them. Don’t be surprised if the Rams are not hoisting the trophy at the end of the season.

Don’t be Surprised if… We see regression from the Bears.

The Bears had a great first year under Ben Johnson. They won their division and their young players took a huge step forward. However, one of the reasons the NFL has such great parity each year is how the scheduled is structured. The Bears will be playing a first place schedule. That alone could cause them to lose a few more games, but they were also a first place team, so they should be fine. The bigger concern comes from within…within their own division.

The NFC North looks like a battle this year. The Packers will still be good, the Bears look good, the Lions are looking to bounce back and are healthy, and the Vikings actually have a quarterback this year. Trying to get out of the NFC North alive will be a challenge for any team. I think the Bears are built the best to do it, but I don’t think they will look good doing it.

On top of that Caleb has to deal with the Madden Cover curse. He might be able to break it, but it will be living in the back of his mind. I really believe in the Bears this year, but I just have a bad feeling with the shape of their division. Don’t be surprised if the end up with less than 11 wins but still sneak into the playoffs.

Don’t be Surprised if… The Patriots miss the playoffs.

The Patriots made a surprise run to the Super Bowl last year. The haters will say it was because of an easy schedule, and the fans will say its because of Drake Maye. I think it was a little of both. They did have a really easy schedule, but that doesn’t always mean you are a bad team. You were clearly better than the teams you had to compete against. They made some moves in the offseason to try and maintain the success they are having. Getting A.J. Brown so that Maye has a true number one was a good start. I still think the duo of Stevenson and Henderson leaves a lot to be desired. Mike Vrabel also had lots of distractions in the offseason, so we will see if that plays into anything.

With a stronger schedule for the Patriots this year and teams wanting to beat the Super Bowl runner up, I see it being a challenging year for their squad. They are still good enough to get 9-10 wins, but that probably won’t be enough to get into the playoffs in a competitive AFC. If they only get to 9 wins they will for sure miss, 10 wins will put them on the edge of making it. This will be a learning and growing year for Drake Maye. If they don’t make the playoffs this year, it will set them up for a strong return next year.

Don’t be Surprised if… The Bills are the first to clinch their division.

By no means do I think the Bills will have the best record in the NFL. That is not what my prompt is saying. I believe with the state of the division, the Bills will be the first team to clinch a division title. The Dolphins and Jets are both dumpster fires at the moment, leaving just the Bills and Patriots to compete for the division crown.

First lets look at the Patriots schedule
They should have wins at home against: Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Bills , and Dolphins.
On the road they should win against: Dolphins and Jets.
That gives them 7 wins. Their road schedule is surprisingly hard: Seahawks, Jaguars, Bills, Bears, Chargers, and Chiefs. All of those seem like tough games to win. Their remaining home opponents: Packers, Lions, Vikings, and Broncos. Also a tough stretch of games. Lets assume they snag 2 more wins to get them to 9.

Now lets take a look at the Bills schedule.
They should have wins at home against: Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Chiefs, Chargers, and Bears.
They should have wins on the road against: Texans, Raiders, Jets and Dolphins.
This puts them at 10 wins. Their remaining home games are against; Lions and Ravens. Their remaining away games are against; Rams, Vikings, Patriots, Packers, and Broncos.
Lets assume they also get two more wins against this tougher matchups, putting them at 12.

So at a minimum they would clinch after week 15. Which isn’t all that impressive, but we should look at how the schedules are constructed. I am really interested in that week 13 game between the Bills and Patriots. The Patriots are at home, which I gave them a win for, but I think its a good point to check records. Patriots at that point have slotted 4 wins and 7 losses. The Bills have slotted 7 wins and 4 losses.

Realistically, I see the Bills getting their two extra wins before this game. Putting them at 9-2. I see the Pats getting their two wins after this game, keeping their record at 4-7. That gives the Bills a 5 game lead with 6 games left. If the Bills go on to win this game, they clinch the division in week 13.

Assuming my original statements are true and the Pats hold off the Bills, we move on to week 14 with the Pats against the Vikings and the Bills against the Packers. Then in week 15 the Pats play the Chiefs and the Bills play the Bears. By this point the division is clinched, the Pats lost at least one of those games and the Bills win at least one of their games. So worst case scenario is week 15 for the Bills, however, I am drawn to that week 13 matchup. Don’t be surprised if the Bills win that game and clinch the division in the process.

Don’t be Surprised if… The Steelers are hot out of the gate.

Let the allegations begin, Justin is biased towards his team. This may be true, but I am also one of the strongest doubters of a Steelers team. I know what we do well and what we are bad at. I would be better described as biased towards defensive teams with potential offensive charm. Which is why I am high on the Vikings this year. I want to take a look at the Steelers schedule up until their bye week, which is week 9. We have Atlanta, Patriots, Bengals, Browns, Colts, Buccaneers, Saints, and Browns again.

I may be an optimist but I see all of those games as winnable, even the Patriots game. The Steelers could easily come out of this stretch going 8-0 or 7-1. Making them the hottest team up until that point. However, the brightest things tend to burn our the quickest. After the bye week we have a gauntlet of: Bengals, Eagles, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, and Ravens. We get a slight break of Panther and Titans before finishing the season against the Ravens. That tough stretch could easily result in a 6 game losing streak, shattering the Steelers aspirations. Don’t be surprised if we get a repeat of the 2020 Steelers who won 11 straight games and then last 4 of their next 5.

Don’t be Surprised if… The Browns have the fewest wins.

Every year my friend and I go through the entire NFL schedule, predicting every single game. In years past, it was safe to assume Cleveland would get a win or two that they shouldn’t because of their defense. A defense that was centered around Myles Garrett, who they traded. With a much weaker defense, a new head coach, and a quarterback room, that is at best mid, the Browns could be in for a very long year.

Their saving grace is that they do get to play some other bottom dwellers; Jets, Titans, and Raiders. Even still, I think those teams can beat the Browns. It could be another 0-17 year for the Browns. While I don’t think that will happen, I do think they will end up with 3 or less wins. This will give them the fewest wins in the NFL.

Don’t be Surprised if… We finally have a 2000 yard receiver.

The NFL has never seen a 2000 yard receiver. We have seen a couple players get close, but nobody has crossed that threshold yet. With the addition of the 17th game fans thought someone would eclipse this number, but so far it has been unreachable. This year, with the incredible depth of quality teams in the NFL, I think a few teams will have to play all 17 games to the fullest just to make the playoffs. Their are several players who could eclipse the mark; JSN, Puka, Chase, St. Brown, Jefferson, and Lamb. Some of these players do play on run first teams, which hurts them, but others will be on teams that need to pass to stay in games.

We have had at least one 1700+ yard receiver every year since 2021. It feels like we are right on the threshold of having a player break that milestone. To get there, we would need a player to average about 118 yards per game. That is a lot of yards, but I can see several players actually getting there. It feels like the right mix of wide receiver talent, defensive scheming, and quarterback arm talent to finally break the 2000 yard mark.

Don’t be Surprised if… Fernando Mendoza wins his first career Start.

The Raiders are currently planning on giving Fernando Mendoza the Patrick Mahomes experience. They will have him sit the entire year behind Kirk Cousins. If the Raiders are smart, they will keep him on the bench for as long as possible. He needs to learn the game, and get comfortable on a NFL team. Once he is comfortable with the situation around him, he will be more confident on the field. The Raiders are going to be bad this year with or without Mendoza starting. Keeping him on the bench the entire year will be the best thing for his development and the future of the Raiders.

How can he get his first win though? Well, if you recall, the Chiefs did let Mahomes start the last game of his rookie year. I think the Raiders will do something similar. Mendoza will get a start at the end of the year, against backups. This will give him confidence that he can be a starter in the NFL and gives him something to build off of in the offseason. Watch out for Mendoza’s first start because the Raiders will get a win.

Don’t be Surprised if… Daniel Jones is getting MVP talks early in the year.

Before Daniel Jones tore his Achilles last year, the Colts were hot, Taylor and Jones were in the MVP conversation, and things were looking up for the city of Indianapolis. After Jones was out for the year, the Colts faltered. They kept dropping game after game, Taylor wasn’t as effective, and they had to have an ancient Phillip Rivers start a game at quarterback. Safe to say – things were bad.

That lives in the heads of the people who vote for MVP. They know how bad the Colts were when Jones wasn’t with them last year. Now, imagine the Colts win their first couple games, and are looking like a legit playoff contender at the halfway point in the year. The voters would have no choice but to look at Daniel Jones for MVP. His absence last year will play heavily into this. Its not every year you get the chance to see exactly what a time is with and without a player. This could be the year the voters get to see that.

If the Colts start out hot, don’t be surprised to see Daniel Jones in the MVP conversation.

Don’t be Surprised if… The Eagles miss the playoffs.

A few years ago it was a meme about how consistently inconsistent the NFC East was. They had a different division winner every year for so long, but lately the Eagles have been perched at the top of the division. With the strength of the NFC West and NFC North, I think only the winner of the NFC East will make the playoffs.

The Eagles are still favorites to win the division. They still have Barkley, Hurts, and Smith on offense. Their defense is anchored by Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean. The team itself has a ton of talent around them. It is just time for regression. The Cowboys are healthy, the Giants got better, and the Commanders are healthier. This makes the division up for grabs between the 4 teams. The Eagles offense felt stale at times last year. Teams are starting to figure them out and stop them. They will need to make adjustments this year if they want to survive.

It will be a dog fight to get out of the East, and I just wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles don’t fly out of it.