Looking at advanced metrics for several key players on my dynasty team.
With the fantasy baseball offseason in full swing, it is a good time to start looking at how my team might shape up next year. Using advanced metrics will help us better predict growth from our young players rather than their raw numbers. Since I can only keep twenty players going into the draft this will be research I needed to do anyways and will save me from having to do it closer to the draft.
Hitter Stats
For all of our hitters we are going to look at a set list of stats to help us create a base, and then I will look through and include any other notable stats as needed. Those stats will be: xwOBA, Barrel %, Hard-Hit %, xSLG, K%, BB%, Chase %, and Sprint Speed.
Why these stats? (Rough 2026 MLB avg for comparisons)
xwOBA – Overall quality of offensive performance (0.315)
Barrel % – How often they produce ideal contact (8.5%)
Hard-Hit % – How often they hit balls 95+ mph (40%)
xSLG – What their slugging should be based on their contact (0.400)
K% – How often they strike out (22%)
BB% – Plate discipline (8%)
Chase % – How often they swing outside of the zone (28%)
Sprint Speed – Athleticism on the bases (27 ft/sec)
Carter Jansen
xwOBA – 0.318
Barrel % – 12.7%
Hard-Hit % – 44.8%
xSLG – 0.423
K% – 28.2%
BB% – 10.8%
Chase % – 24.1%
Sprint Speed – 27.8 ft/sec
Additional Stat – September Splits: 0.338 AVG with 8 homers
Considering Jansen’s position as catcher, his numbers look incredible good. He had a crazy good September that helped out his numbers a ton. Without that his numbers were probably closer to average, but that is average across all MLB positions, it is harder to find elite hitting at the catching position. The only number that jumps out as bad is his K%. Striking out over 28% of the time doesn’t do him any favors. I assume as he matures and gets more at bats he will work his way out of that. The rest of his number I am happy with, I look forward to seeing what Jansen can do next season.
TJ Rumfield
xwOBA – 0.333
Barrel % – 5.0%
Hard-Hit % – 27.9%
xSLG – 0.386
K% – 13.6%
BB% – 11.4%
Chase % – 30.4%
Sprint Speed – 24.9 ft/sec
Additional Stat – LA Sweet-Spot% – 37.4% (82nd percentile)
The biggest thing that Rumfield has going for him is his eye. His K% sits at 13.6% while the league average is nearly 22%. However, he has a higher than average chase rate on pitches out of the zone. His walk percentage is also just slightly higher than league average. This tells me two things. First, when he gets to two strikes he is battling, fighting off borderline pitches to stay alive. Second, this approach normally doesn’t result in him walking. His Hard-Hit% is significantly lower than league average showing that he doesn’t make hard contact with the ball. He was just a rookie though. We can see what improvements he makes this offseason. I would like to see him be more aggressive early in the count. Instead of fighting off pitches, he should be looking to attack. I think just a simple mindset improvement is all he needs.
Hao Yu Lee
xwOBA – 0.302
Barrel % – 8.5%
Hard-Hit % – 41.3%
xSLG – 0.393
K% – 23.9%
BB% – 8.2%
Chase % – 29.1%
Sprint Speed – 28.1 ft/sec
Additional Stat – 1st percentile in Outs Above Average (-12)
Lee won’t be on my keep squad, but I still wanted to take a look at his game as an option for the draft or a pickup. He has pretty similar numbers compared to the average player, which is fine as a rookie. Ideally he would improve overtime. The most concerning aspect of his game is on the defensive side. He was the bottom percentile of the MLB in outs above average. Really costing his team. Being just an average hitter will cause him to lose playing time if his defense stays this bad.
Pedro Ramirez
xwOBA – 0.284
Barrel % – 4.1%
Hard-Hit % – 39%
xSLG – 0.342
K% – 18.4%
BB% – 7.5%
Chase % – 33%
Sprint Speed – 28.4 ft/sec
Additional Stat – Most of his bad hitting came against breaking balls.
Pedro Ramirez is a tough player to judge. When he got consistent playing time I thought he was a good player, but when other players got healthy on the Cubs, he become a weak side platoon player, really only starting against lefties. This caused him to never really catch a groove at the plate. His speed and defense are his best attributes at the moment. Looking at where it went bad for him, he struggled heavily against breaking balls. Fastball and off-speed variations he did fine with, but he breaking balls would get him. I believe the trainers around him will notice this and have him work on that this offseason. He chased a lot of breaking balls out of the zone and when he made contact it was soft. He needs to improve being able to pick up the spin on the ball and his swing decision making on those pitches. Once he figured that out I think he will be an above average hitter.
Chase Meidroth
xwOBA – 0.301
Barrel % – 4.6%
Hard-Hit % – 34.6%
xSLG – 0.348
K% – 21.9 %
BB% – 9.5 %
Chase % – 28.9%
Sprint Speed – 27.4 ft/sec
Additional Stat – September and Lefty Splits
Chase Meidroth for most of the year was a below average hitter, and I think his Barrel % is indicative of that. However, when September rolled around a flip switch. He started hitting better and it was a great showing for next year. All year he was killing lefties though. He was significantly above average hitter against lefties which kept his bat in the lineup. If he could transfer some of that hitting ability against lefties into some consistency against righties, he will be a force for the White Sox. Next year will be interesting to see who makes improvements bette
Carson Benge
xwOBA – 0.341
Barrel % – 7.3%
Hard-Hit % – 38.8%
xSLG – 0.438
K% – 21.7%
BB% – 7.6%
Chase % – 28.0%
Sprint Speed – 28.6 ft/sec
Additional Stat -0.279 (89th percentile) xBA
Carson Benge had a slow start to his season. But as the weather turned warm, he got hot. Finishing as a top 5 rookie in the NL he had a great start to his career. Specifically his advanced numbers show he was much better than average with is xwOBA and his xSLG. Those are big for our fantasy league. Slugging and getting on base help with most of the batting categories. Additional, he was 89th percentile in xBA. Benge is hitting, slugging, and walking his way to a top hitter in the league. His numbers show that he could be in a for a big year next season.
Jake McCarthy
xwOBA – 0.321
Barrel % – 5.4%
Hard-Hit % – 28.1%
xSLG – 0.410
K% – 15.9%
BB% – 5.0%
Chase % – 37.8%
Sprint Speed – 30 ft/sec
Additional Stat – 85.3 mph Avg Exit Velo (4th percentile)
It took a few years but it felt like McCarthy finally lived up to the hype he had has a rookie. However, looking at his advanced numbers give me a bit of concern. Playing in Denver and with his speed he should be trying to hit those gaps and get extra bases. However, his Chase % was 37.8 % and when he made contact he was in the bottom 4th percentile in all of baseball for exit velocity. Not only does he chase a lot of pitches outside of the zone, when he makes contact it does not make hard contact. This combination scares me. I can get over having a low exit velocity if he had a good eye, but he doesn’t. I expect regression from him next season, especially if he signs elsewhere this offseason.
Ryan Waldschmidt
xwOBA – 0.297
Barrel % – 6.5%
Hard-Hit % – 29.8%
xSLG – 0.356
K% – 29.9%
BB% – 7.7%
Chase % – 25.0%
Sprint Speed – 29.1 ft/sec
Additional Stat – 45.6% Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % (would be around 99th percentile if a qualified hitter)
Waldschmidt got called up, struggled, got sent down, and then got called up again. He never really figured things out, but the D-Backs needed his fielding ability. Based on his limited at bats, it is tough to get a clear look at his strengths and weaknesses. However, one thing that can’t be denied is his speed, he is one of the fastest players in the league. If he had gotten enough at bats he would have been in the 99th percentile in Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % as well. He doesn’t make contact too often, but when he does, he is hitting it at the correct angle. One of the biggest shocks when looking at his numbers is the K% and Chase %. He is chasing pitches outside of the zone only 25% of the time, but is striking out at almost a 30% clip. This shows that he is struggling with pitches in the zone as well. He needs to get better at making contact instead of striking out. With his speed, just putting the ball in play can lead to big things.
Josue De Paula
xwOBA – 0.437
Barrel % – 11.5%
Hard-Hit % – 46.2%
xSLG – 0.496
K% – 11.9%
BB% – 26.2%
Chase % – 18.6%
Sprint Speed – 27.1 ft/sec
Additional Stat – Only had 42 plate appearances.
Big disclaimer with Josue De Paula, he only had 42 plate appearances. However, in those 42 plate appearances, his numbers are insane. There is a reason that the Dodgers carried him on their postseason roster. He is a huge X-factor player that I expect to make the Big League roster out of Spring Training. It will be interesting to see what his numbers look like as he gets more at bats in the bigs.
Cam Smith
xwOBA – 0.316
Barrel % – 11.2%
Hard-Hit % – 43.5%
xSLG – 0.420
K% – 26.1%
BB% – 29.1%
Chase % – 30.0%
Sprint Speed – 29.2 ft/sec
Additional Stat – 77.9 mph Bat Speed (99th percentile)
Probably my most annoying player. He has so much potential but is constantly underperforming. Even though he is one of the fastest players in the big leagues he feels like a ‘three true outcomes’ player. Striking out or walking 55.2% of the time, and hitting 21 homers. I can’t even say that he is a “great eye” because he chases pitches out of the zone 30% of the time. His stats seem to just contradict themselves. On top of all of that, he ranks in the 99th percentile in bat speed, which explains his hard-hit percentages and his high xSLG percentage. If he could limit his strikeouts, I believe he could be a top hitter in the bigs. Having someone who can hit the ball hard, turn singles into doubles, and will take a walk is a dangerous batter. Right now, his strikeout rates limit his production at the plate.
Xavier Edwards
xwOBA – 0.311
Barrel % – 3.2%
Hard-Hit % – 28.4%
xSLG – 0.356
K% – 13.9%
BB% – 11.4%
Chase % – 24.4%
Sprint Speed – 28.3 ft/sec
Additional Stat – 32.7% Squared-Up % (92cd percentile)
Xavier Edwards doesn’t really fill a need on my team. He does a lot of things that other players on my team also do. Looking at his advanced numbers I don’t think that will change anytime soon either. He doesn’t hit the ball hard or barrel the ball often. Leading to a lot of soft contact off his bat. If you can only contribute soft contact it makes it easier for defenses to line up against you. They don’t have to worry about anything over their head. I think we saw something like this as the year went on. Edwards started hot, and then each month his stats got worse. He still can be an affective player, but I will look to flip him if possible.
Ceddanne Rafaela
xwOBA – 0.285
Barrel % – 5.4%
Hard-Hit % – 31.9%
xSLG – 0.362
K% – 20.3%
BB% – 3.8%
Chase % – 45.3%
Sprint Speed – 29.0 ft/sec
Additional Stat – Fielding Run Value (98th percentile)
Rafaela was another player who had a slow start to his year. Something clicked in the summer and Rafaela went on a tear. That continued until he suffered a leg injury. This kept him out for a few weeks and he wasn’t the same when he got back. However, that hot streak was a great sign for what he is capable of. The biggest knock on Rafaela’s game is his Chase %. At 45.3% chase rate, it is hard to be a consistent hitter. He needs to work on his eye and his swing selection. Once he improves that he will be a great asset for the Red Sox and my team.
Colt Emerson
xwOBA – 0.248
Barrel % – 5.0%
Hard-Hit % – 31.2%
xSLG – 0.300
K% – 34.4%
BB% – 6.2%
Chase % – 38.9%
Sprint Speed – 27.0 ft/sec
Additional Stat -Would have been a bottom 10% batter if qualified
Colt Emerson’s big league debut was not good. He had a few at bats where he looked good, but more often than not he just looked lost at the plate. His advanced numbers reflect that as well; a high chase rate, a high strikeout rate, and a low xwOBA. He will have a lot to improve on this offseason. There’s a chance he doesn’t end up with the big league club. They were planning on sending him down before he was placed on the injured list. I am hoping he will be able to make these adjustments. He is still very young, it may be best for him to spend the majority of the year in the minors just getting reps with less pressure.
Braden Montgomery
xwOBA – 0.325
Barrel % – 4.4%
Hard-Hit % – 40.9%
xSLG – 0.392
K% – 19.7%
BB% – 10.4%
Chase % – 27.4%
Sprint Speed – 28.4 ft/sec
Additional Stat – 30.1% Whiff% (17th percentile)
Braden Montgomery’s numbered never popped out to me during the season. He felt a little underwhelming. His advanced numbers suggest that as well. He does have a knack for getting on base with his slightly above average xwOBA. However, his xSLG is lower than league average. I felt like most of his games were 0-4 with a walk, maybe 1-4 with a walk. That doesn’t workout well in our fantasy league. However, I have faith that he will figure it out. He had several good games during the White Sox playoff run. Hopefully he takes those good games and turns them into a good season.
Pitcher Stats
Just like our hitters, for pitchers we will use a set list of stats to help create a base, and then I will include any other notable stats as needed. The stats for pitchers are: K-BB%, SIERA, xERA, CSW%, SwStr%, BB%, Barrel % allowed, Stuff+/Pitching+
Why these stats? (Rough 2026 MLB avg for comparisons)
K-BB% – Dominance and Command (15%)
SIERA – ERA estimated based on skills (3.90)
xERA – expected ERA based on contact allowed (4.00)
CSW% – Called strikes + swing strike percentage (28%)
SwStr% – Ability to generate whiffs (11%)
BB% – Control in general (8%)
Barrel % allowed – How often they give up solid contact (8%)
Stuff+/Pitching+ – Quality of their arsenal (100 is average)
Sean Burke
K-BB% – 17.2%
SIERA – 3.79
xERA – 3.78
CSW% – 28.2%
SwStr% – 11.1%
BB% – 8.7%
Barrel % allowed – 8.3 %
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 99/99
Additional Stat – First half vs second half cutter percentage: 16.8% vs 6.2% (accidental cutter)
Sean Burke had an up and down season. He started off well, got hit around a lot, then had a stretch where he was striking out 10+ batters a game, and then came back down to earth. Just with the eye test on Burke, I thought his best attribute would be his stuff. The way his stuff moves produced strikeouts and soft contact. The Advanced numbers disagree with having his stuff just below average. One thing that stuck out to me was his cutter percentage between the first and second half’s of the season. He went from throwing it nearly 17% of the time to only 6%. This was because he was throwing it accidentally. Long story short, in his development of other pitches he was putting accidental spin on his 4-seam fastball, causing it to move and be classified as a cutter. This limited his control of the pitch and lead to the walks. The second half he was much better. All of his yearly numbers show that he was just a slightly above average pitcher. Great for a cheap option to bolster our team, but not somebody who could carry a staff. His number one weapon for our fantasy league is his strikeout totals.
Noah Cameron
K-BB% – 13.4%
SIERA – 4.22
xERA – 4.11
CSW% – 26.0%
SwStr% – 11.1%
BB% – 7.6%
Barrel % allowed – 8.2%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 97/104
Additional Stat – Second Half xERA: 3.12
It took Noah Cameron awhile to figure it out this year, which was good for me being able to get him for cheap. He had a great second half xERA of 3.12, well below league average. He might have below average stuff, but he knows how to pitch when helps him get deep into games. His best asset for fantasy is his ability to rack up innings with a low WHIP and ERA. He has a relatively low strikeout rate while giving up an average Barrel % rate. I would like to see him lower that Barrel % next year. If he is a guy who wants to induce soft contact, he shouldn’t be allowing Barrels at an average rate, he should be better. All of his second half numbers though indicate that he figured something out and hopefully will carry that over to next season.
Nate Pearson
K-BB% – 7.5%
SIERA – 4.58
xERA – 4.38
CSW% – 24.2%
SwStr% – 9.0%
BB% – 13.0%
Barrel % allowed – 7.1%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 104/90
Additional Stat – Clutch: -1.00 (0 is normal)
The most important stats for a back-end reliever is Clutch. It doesn’t matter how good your stuff is, how many people you strikeout, or what your numbers look like. Clutch will show how you perform when you are actually put in high-pressure situations. That number was very low for Pearson last year. He has great stuff, but he can’t seem to perform when it matters. This makes him hard to roster in our league. He might be a holds guy depending on where he ends up, be he for sure won’t be a closer unless he can improve his clutchness. I already wasn’t going to roster him next year, but seeing these numbers makes me want to avoid him in the draft as well.
Roki Sasaki
K-BB% – 14.4%
SIERA – 4.09
xERA – 4.30
CSW% – 27.6%
SwStr% – 13.4%
BB% – 9.2%
Barrel % allowed – 9.8%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 111/111
Additional Stat – 1st time through order stats: 3.00 ERA, 2.82 OBP, and 0.204 AVG, 2nd time through: 5.09 ERA, 3.62 OBP, and 0.278 AVG, 3rd time through: 7.25 ERA, 3.20 OBP, and 0.258 AVG
The most common question around Roki right now is if he should be a starter or a reliever. He has had success as a starter, but has also had lots of failures. As a reliever he is really only seeing success. The problem with making him strictly a reliever is that his stuff is so good that you want to start him. His Stuff+ and Pitching+ show that. I took a look at his numbers as he makes his way through the order. I took a look at his ERA, OBP, and AVG. ERA can be misleading here with small sample sizes, but wanted to use it to show that hits/walks are being strung together to produce runs. His first time through is pretty good, second time worse, and third time is a little better than second time through but with a lot less data there. If he wants to remain a starter, he needs to get that 2nd time through the order numbers down. If he gets put in a high-leverage role out of the bullpen I can see him being a crazy good fantasy asset. If they want to continue to try him in the rotation, we will need to see how the season plays out.
Noah Schultz
K-BB% – 11.1%
SIERA – 4.51
xERA – 5.60
CSW% – 26.9%
SwStr% – 8.7%
BB% – 9.6%
Barrel % allowed – 9.7%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 98/95
Additional Stat – Stats as a reliever (second call-up) 23.1% K-BB, 0 BB, 0.184 AVG, 0.64 WHIP, 14 IP, 3.45 xERA,
Noah Schultz had two very different big league stints. In his first stint he was a starter and suffered with control issues. Standing at 6’10” Schultz has a lot of arm and leg to work with in his delivery. It is understandable if his mechanics get out of sync. The White Sox made the decision to send him down and when he was recalled pitched him out of the bullpen. This worked out well. He had 0 walks and a 3.45 xERA. I don’t know if this was because he was a reliver, or if he figured out something in the minors. Either way, it is a great sign of things to come. He has the tools to be great, he just needs to be consistent.
Hagen Smith
K-BB% – 22.7%
SIERA – 3.06
xERA – 2.45
CSW% – 34.5%
SwStr% – 14.5%
BB% – 14.5%
Barrel % allowed – 1.9%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 108/100
Additional Stat – First pitch strike percentage: 54.5%
Hagen Smith’s biggest issue in the minor leagues was his walks. He couldn’t quite find his command. However, that was not the case once he got called up to the big leagues. He worked out of the bullpen mostly with a few starts as an opener. This helped him go all out with his stuff. His walk rate was still a little high, but he worked around it. His barrel rate was extremely low and his Stuff was rated above average. He needs to work on his first pitch strike percentage. He is only starting head of batters just under 55% of the time. This explains his walk rates in the big leagues. Hopefully in the offseason he can work on his command and become a strike thrower.
Jonah Tong
K-BB% – 14.9%
SIERA – 3.94
xERA – 3.12
CSW% – 27.1%
SwStr% – 13.7%
BB% – 10.4%
Barrel % allowed – 6.0%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 96/89
Additional Stat – Reverse Starter splits 1st time through order ERA: 6.75, second time: 3.12, third time: 0.00. 1st time through as reliever: 0.00 ERA.
Jonah Tong didn’t get too many chances this year. Looking at his numbers they are all below average for the most part, especially his pitching+. He is still very young and he will need to continue to improve to carve out a starter role for himself. He had some weird reverse splits when starting. Having a 6.75 ERA the first time through an order. However, when he was a reliever, he had a 0.00 ERA facing the order the first time. His stuff does play during the first time through, he may just have some nerves when starting. I am excited to see what he does this offseason in order to better prepare himself for, hopefully, a full big league season.
Bubba Chandler
K-BB% – 8.9%
SIERA – 4.80
xERA – 4.28
CSW% – 25.2%
SwStr% – 9.3%
BB% – 11.9%
Barrel % allowed – 6.0%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 101/105
Additional Stat – 48.5% strike percentage
Bubba Chandler has all of the stuff to be a top of the line guy, he just doesn’t have the control to be there. He starts under 50% of at bats with a strike. It is tough to be an effective pitchers in the major league when you are starting behind in the count every other batter. This might be a case of his stuff being better than his command. He gets a lot of chases but doesn’t get a lot of swinging strikes. He has a lot to work on in order to become a quality starting pitcher.
Blake Snell
K-BB% – 22.5%
SIERA – 3.22
xERA – 2.17
CSW% – 30.9%
SwStr% – 15.8%
BB% – 9.2%
Barrel % allowed – 2.0%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – 119/120
Additional Stat – 96.0 AVG fastball velocity
Snell had a great year when he could actually pitch. All of his numbers are better than average and his Stuff+ and Pitching+ were exceptionally good. Another thing to look at was that his average fastball was still 96.0 MPH. Not as fast as it used to be, but still a good sign that his arm is still good for his age. Assuming he stays healthy he will be a great pitcher next year. Although his price and age do not fit my team’s needs so he won’t be on the Katts.
Jamie Arnold
All Minor League Stats
K-BB% – 15.0%
SIERA – N/A
xERA – 6.64
CSW% – 28.6%
SwStr% – 11.5%
BB% – 10.0%
Barrel % allowed – 7.7%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – N/A
Additional Stat – Lack of data
Seth Hernandez
All Minor League Stats
K-BB% – 29.8%
SIERA – N/A
xERA – 1.78
CSW% – 35.2%
SwStr% – 20.4%
BB% – 10.6%
Barrel % allowed – 4.3%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – N/A
Additional Stat – Lack of data
Cade Horton
Only 1 full start, and then injured in second start. Doesn’t make sense to look at advanced metrics on that.
Spencer Schwellenbach
Did not pitch this year
Thomas White
All Minor League Stats
K-BB% – 18.7%
SIERA – N/A
xERA – 5.39
CSW% – 28.4%
SwStr% – 11.8%
BB% – 11.1%
Barrel % allowed – 11.1%
Stuff+/Pitching+ – N/A
Additional Stat – Lack of Data/Injuries
